After bottoming on June 4th (red P3), the rally extended, and a week ago last Monday, Crude Oil Futures impulsively overtook resistance at both the Median Line (red dotted line) of the newly drawn Standard Pitchfork (red P1 through P3) and the Kijun Plot which had capped rally attempts since falling below it in mid-April (highlighted with the yellow circle). On Monday Oil powered out of the down trend that has been in place since early April (yellow dotted line). Prices rallied above the Upper Parallel of the of the Standard Pitchfork (solid red line) and closed above it yesterday. Cloud resistance and the April distributive top are now coming into play. That said, oil has the wind at its back as witnessed by MACD but one should keep an eye on the Fisher Transform which is reaching the upper boundary of its range although it continues to track higher and remains above its signal line.
All the technical features mentioned above suggest that an important price pivot on June 4th (red P3) marked a key turn in oil prices but a measure of “backing and filling” is likely in order before oil can extend the rally. A rally through Cloud resistance at the $82 level would place April highs in the bulls’ crosshairs. The technical condition of Crude Oil Futures will be a regular feature in the upcoming Market’s Compass Speculator which will be published fortnightly to my Substack Blog.
