Markets opened the week in cautious fashion as a prolonged U.S. government shutdown continued to cloud the economic outlook, with equities finding support from AI-driven gains while manufacturing data confirmed ongoing sectoral weakness.
Gold and the U.S. dollar both advanced as traders weighed conflicting signals on Federal Reserve policy, while Bitcoin faced selling pressure and oil move on OPEC+ supply news.
Check out the forex news and economic updates you may have missed in the latest trading session!
News Headlines & Data:
- OPEC+ agreed to pause production increases for Q1 2026 after a modest hike in Q4 2025
- New Zealand Building Permits for September 2025: 7.2% m/m (0.8% m/m forecast; 5.8% m/m previous)
- Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge for October 2025: 0.3% m/m (0.2% m/m forecast; 0.4% m/m previous)
- Australia Building Permits Prel for September 2025: 12.0% m/m (6.5% m/m forecast; -6.0% m/m previous)
- Australia ANZ-Indeed Job Ads for October 2025: -2.2% m/m (0.5% m/m forecast; -3.3% m/m previous)
- Swiss Consumer Price Index Rate for October 2025: -0.3% m/m (-0.1% m/m forecast; -0.2% m/m previous); 0.1% y/y (0.2% y/y forecast; 0.2% y/y previous)
- Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said that underlying inflation in Canada remains above the 2% target, so interest rates are likely at the lower end of the neutral range and further cuts are unlikely for now.
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A few Fed members spoke publicly on Monday:
- Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Daly said the Fed should keep an open mind about a rate cut in December
- Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said he’s more worried about inflation than the labor market
- Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook said the risk of further labor-market weakness is greater than the risk that inflation will pick up
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Global PMI updates signal falling/contractionary sentiment:
- Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final for October 2025: 49.7 (49.7 forecast; 51.4 previous)
- China RatingDog Manufacturing PMI for October 2025: 50.6 (50.8 forecast; 51.2 previous)
- Swiss procure.ch Manufacturing PMI for October 2025: 48.2 (46.4 forecast; 46.3 previous)
- Euro area HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final for October 2025: 50.0 (50.0 forecast; 49.8 previous)
- U.K. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final for October 2025: 49.7 (49.6 forecast; 46.2 previous)
- Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for October 2025: 49.6 (48.0 forecast; 47.7 previous)
- U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final for October 2025: 52.5 (52.2 forecast; 52.0 previous)
- U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for October 2025: 48.7 (49.5 forecast; 49.1 previous)
Broad Market Price Action:
Dollar Index, Gold, S&P 500, Oil, U.S. 10-yr Yield, Bitcoin Overlay Chart by TradingView
Markets navigated a data-light Monday dominated by manufacturing reports and ongoing uncertainty about the Federal Reserve’s December policy decision following Chair Powell’s cautious stance last week.
The S&P 500 climbed 0.22% to close around 6,850, driven primarily by a 1.2% surge in the “Magnificent Seven” technology stocks following Amazon’s massive deal with OpenAI. However, market breadth remained narrow, with over 300 firms in the index actually declining on the day. The equal-weighted version of the S&P 500 fell, highlighting the concentration of gains in megacap technology names.
Gold edged higher by 0.17% to trade near $4,000, likely maintaining support from Fed rate cut expectations and safe-haven demand from the U.S. government shutdown situation elevating uncertainty in the U.S.
WTI crude oil posted modest gains of 0.55% to settle around $60.80, likely finding support from weekend news that OPEC+ agreed to pause production increases for Q1 2026, but signaled a modest hike before the end of the year. The decision to pause in 2026, which was not expected by markets, reflected concerns about potential winter oversupply. Oil spiked notably at the Asia session open, then proceeded to chop mostly sideways for the rest of the session.
Bitcoin declined 2.41% to $106,787, extending losses from Asia trading, possibly a continuation of doubts over a December Fed rate cut curbed appetite for risk assets. The cryptocurrency faced sustained selling pressure throughout the Asian session, stabilized during London trade, then dropped sharply and stabilizing after the U.S. open.
The 10-year Treasury yield rose 2 basis points to 4.10% as bond markets digested mixed signals from Fed officials. While Governor Waller advocated for a December cut ahead of the weekend, other officials including Beth Hammack and Lorie Logan expressed opposition to the previous week’s rate reduction. Markets are currently pricing in a 67-68% probability of another cut in December, down from 94% a week ago.
FX Market Behavior: U.S. Dollar vs. Majors:
Overlay of USD vs. Majors Chart by TradingView
At the Monday Asian session open, the greenback saw initial strength stabilize before pulling back ahead of the London open. Bitcoin’s weakness during Asia hours contrasted with relative stability in other major assets, suggesting some caution in risk appetite to support the Greenback.
During the London session, the dollar regained its footing and posted net positive gains against major currencies. Again, no major catalysts from the U.S. front, so it’s possible USD strength may have stemmed from EUR & GBP weakness after disappointing final PMI data from the European region.
After the U.S. session opened, the dollar initially gained ground against major currencies but then reversed to trade mixed heading into the close. The reversal lower correlated to the ISM U.S. Manufacturing PMI update, which signaled continued negative sentiment as the index fell to 48.7 versus expectations of 49.5, marking the eighth consecutive month of contraction.
The bearish vibes on the Greenback was short-lived, however, likely a reaction to conflicting comments from several Federal Reserve members, in terms of what worries them more: inflation or jobs. Fed member Goolsbee sees more risk in inflation growth, Cook sees more risk in jobs, while Daly said the Fed should keep an open mind to a cut in December.
By the Monday session close, the U.S. dollar was able to snag the top spot among the majors, likely still reflecting the hawkish shift in the Greenback last week, sparked by Fed Chair Powell’s pushback on a potential cut in December.
Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar
- Japan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final for October 2025 at 12:30 am GMT
- Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision at 3:30 am GMT
- Australia RBA Press Conference at 4:30 am GMT
- Euro area ECB President Lagarde Speech at 7:40 am GMT
- Euro area ECB President Lagarde Speech at 9:45 am GMT
- U.S. Fed Bowman Speech at 11:35 am GMT
- U.S. Balance of Trade for August 2025 & September 2025
- New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index for November 4, 2025
- U.S. Factory Orders for August 2025
- U.S. Total Vehicle Sales for October 2025
- U.S. JOLTs Job Openings for September 2025
- U.S. RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index for November 2025 at 3:10 pm GMT
- New Zealand RBNZ Financial Stability Report at 8:00 pm GMT
- U.S. API Crude Oil Stock Change for October 31, 2025 at 9:30 pm GMT
- New Zealand Employment Change & Unemployment Rate at 9:45 pm GMT
Tuesday’s calendar centers on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate decision, where the central bank is widely expected to hold rates unchanged at current levels given October’s sticky inflation reading of 3.1% and mixed signals from the Australian economy. Any hawkish tilt in the monetary policy statement could support the Australian dollar, while dovish language about future easing could weigh on the currency.
Markets will also monitor for any fresh developments on the U.S. government shutdown. Resolution of the impasse could reduce downside growth risks and impact Fed rate cut expectations.
The ongoing U.S.-China trade situation remains in focus, with manufacturers in the ISM survey citing tariffs as “a major brake to activity” and expressing concern over the “ever-changing tariff landscape.” Any fresh developments on trade policy could drive volatility across equity and currency markets.
Finally, New Zealand’s Q3 employment data just ahead of the Wednesday Asia open will provide insight into labor market conditions in the Pacific region, with implications for RBNZ policy expectations and potential spillover effects to Australian dollar trading given the close economic ties between the two nations.
Stay frosty out there forex friends and don’t forget to check out our Forex Correlation Calculator when planning to take on risk!
