Last week’s price action was driven almost entirely by the US-Iran conflict — if you missed it, catch the full recap here. The short version: a Trump social media post about “productive talks” triggered a sharp Monday reversal, Iran denied everything, and markets spent the rest of the week repricing higher on geopolitical safe-haven demand and a string of hot domestic data. Manufacturing PMI surged past forecasts, Unit Labor Costs printed at more than twice consensus, and Michigan inflation expectations jumped to 3.8% — locking in the Fed-hold narrative and sending DXY to its best weekly close in months.
At the Friday close, DXY traded near 100.19, decisively above the 100.00 handle. Gold held around $4,493, stabilizing after a sharp selloff from early-March highs near $5,200. The S&P 500 closed Friday near 6,354 under pressure from rising Treasury yields and stagflation anxiety now bleeding into the bond market.
WTI crude traded near $98.70 on the Friday close — verify Sunday open given weekend escalation before acting on this level. Bitcoin holds $66,520 on the Sunday morning open.
The conflict entered its fifth week with significant overnight escalation: Houthi rebels fired their first ballistic missile toward Israel from Yemen, Iranian strikes on Saudi Arabia’s Prince Sultan Air Base wounded more than two dozen US service members, and VP Vance stated the war will continue “a little while longer.” Trump’s April 6 deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz now arrives with positions on both sides more entrenched than seven days ago.
Let’s see how this may influence markets in the week ahead.
