1. U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) – January 13, 13:30 UTC
The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the most closely watched inflation indicator in the world’s largest economy. Released monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, both headline CPI and Core CPI (which excludes volatile food and energy prices) provide critical insights into underlying inflation trends. The latest data shows annual headline CPI at 2.7% and Core CPI at 2.6%, aligning with market expectations but remaining above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Any deviation—especially in the month-over-month figures—could significantly shift market pricing for future interest rate decisions, triggering volatility across equities, fixed income, and foreign exchange markets.
2. U.S. Retail Sales – January 14, 13:30 UTC
Retail Sales, often referred to as the “control group” when excluding automobiles, gasoline, and building materials, serve as a direct gauge of consumer spending—which accounts for nearly 70% of U.S. GDP. The reported month-over-month change dropped sharply from an expected +1.1% to 0.0%, signaling a potential slowdown in household demand. Such a surprise can quickly revise growth forecasts downward and increase speculation about earlier or deeper Federal Reserve rate cuts. Markets typically react swiftly to this data, especially when it contradicts recent consumer confidence surveys or employment trends.
3. Eurozone Final CPI (HICP) – January 15, 08:00 UTC
The final release of the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for the Eurozone confirms or adjusts preliminary estimates published earlier in the month. With the year-over-year HICP reading at 3.0%—above the European Central Bank’s medium-term target of 2%—this report carries substantial weight for ECB policy direction. A confirmed high reading may delay anticipated rate cuts, reinforcing EUR strength. Conversely, a downward revision could accelerate dovish expectations, increasing EUR volatility against major currencies like the USD and JPY. Traders pay close attention to both headline and core components, as well as country-level breakdowns (especially Germany and France).
4. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims – January 15, 13:30 UTC
Initial Jobless Claims offer a timely weekly snapshot of labor market health. The latest figure rose to 225,000, notably higher than the forecast of 208,000, suggesting a softening in employment conditions. While one week’s data isn’t conclusive, a sustained upward trend would raise concerns about economic momentum and consumer resilience. Given the Fed’s dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment, persistent jobless claims increases could tilt policymakers toward a more accommodative stance, supporting Treasury yields and weighing on the U.S. dollar.
5. U.S. Industrial Production – January 16, 14:15 UTC
Published by the Federal Reserve, Industrial Production measures output across manufacturing, mining, and utilities—key sectors that reflect broader economic activity. The report showed a modest 0.2% month-over-month gain, slightly above the 0.1% forecast, indicating short-term resilience. However, year-over-year growth remained flat at 0.0%, hinting at stagnation in industrial capacity. This mixed signal can create divergent reactions: supportive for cyclical equities in the near term, yet cautionary for commodities and capital goods sectors over the medium term. In a global context of supply chain recalibration and trade policy uncertainty, this indicator gains added relevance.
These five events represent the highest-impact releases during the week of January 12–16, 2026. Given their direct influence on monetary policy expectations, risk sentiment, and macroeconomic outlooks, they are likely to drive significant volatility across global financial markets. Traders and investors should prepare for heightened price action around these announcements and consider hedging strategies where appropriate.
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