JOLTS Job Openings — Tuesday, March 31, 2026
Yesterday’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey confirmed the labour market’s low-hire, low-fire dynamic remained firmly intact through February. Job openings came in at 6.9 million, little changed on the month — the more precise figure being 6.882 million, a decrease of 358,000 from the upwardly revised January figure of 7.24 million, and modestly below the consensus forecast of 6.918 million.
The headline story was in hires. The number of hires decreased to 4.8 million, down 498,000 in February, and was down by 387,000 over the year. The hires rate fell to 3.1%, the lowest since April 2020. That rate is comparable to late 2009 and early 2010, when the unemployment rate was around 10%.
The gap between posted openings and actual filled positions continued to widen, raising questions about how many of those 6.9 million openings reflect genuine near-term hiring intent.
The quits rate held at 1.9% in February, its eighth consecutive month at or below 2.0%, reflecting a workforce that doesn’t feel it can afford to take chances. Layoffs and discharges remained unchanged at 1.7 million, with a notable rise in retail trade (+72,000), partially offset by a decline in nondurable goods manufacturing (-26,000).
Taken together, yesterday’s report showed a labor market already cooling before this week’s broader macro data arrives. Separations exceeded hires in February, meaning payrolls contracted on a net basis even without a spike in layoffs. That context sits directly behind Friday’s NFP print. Relevant markets on Kraken Pro: spot and margin BTC/USD, ETH/USD, and dollar-correlated pairs.
ISM Manufacturing PMI — Wednesday, April 1, 2026
The first business day of April brings the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for March, the first major business survey conducted entirely under the post-IEEPA tariff environment. That context matters significantly.
After the Supreme Court struck down IEEPA-based tariffs in February 2026, the administration replaced them with a 10% global surcharge under Section 122 of the Trade Act, effective February 24. That shift created a new cost environment for manufacturers, but also a new layer of uncertainty: the Section 122 rate could rise to 15%, 24 states are pursuing legal challenges, and new Section 301 investigations were launched in March. Manufacturers are navigating all of this simultaneously.
Traders will pay particular attention to the Prices Paid sub-index, a direct read on input cost pressures, and the New Orders sub-index, which signals forward demand. If new orders weaken while prices remain elevated, it would point to a stagflationary pressure profile that tends to complicate Fed decision-making and often generates cross-asset volatility.
If manufacturing activity surprises to the upside, it could be read as evidence that businesses are absorbing the tariff transition without significant demand destruction.
A reading above 50 indicates expansion; the index has spent much of the past 18 months below that level. Relevant markets: BTC/USD, ETH/USD, and macro-sensitive spot pairs.
US Nonfarm Payrolls — Friday, April 3, 2026
This is the release traders have been building toward all week. The Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed the March 2026 Employment Situation will be published Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Context is everything here. February’s reading came in at -92,000, the largest single-month decline in four months, driven by a 28,000 drop in healthcare employment (attributed to strike activity), an 11,000 fall in information sector jobs, and a continued reduction of 10,000 in federal government employment.
Revisions also shaved 69,000 combined from December and January. The cumulative picture is of a labor market under sustained pressure from multiple directions: federal downsizing, tariff-related manufacturing headwinds, and sector-specific disruptions.
March’s number will be the first full payrolls read since the February 24 Section 122 tariff replacement. Markets will be watching whether the February decline was a one-month anomaly driven by the healthcare strikes, or the beginning of a more sustained deterioration.
Average hourly earnings will also be scrutinized, and in the context of persistent services inflation and a tariff-driven cost environment, wage growth data directly informs the Fed’s inflation assessment.
Scenarios to watch: if March shows a meaningful recovery toward positive territory, markets may interpret it as confirmation that February was noise. If payrolls deteriorate further or remain negative, it would significantly alter the rate path debate. Neither outcome is predetermined. Relevant markets: all major Kraken Pro spot and margin pairs, BTC/USD, ETH/USD, and futures.
ISM Services PMI — Friday, April 3, 2026
NFP day is also ISM Services day. The ISM Services PMI for March publishes at 10:00 a.m. ET on the same morning as the jobs report, meaning traders face two major data points within the same two-hour window.
February’s services reading came in at 56.1, its highest since August 2022, with business activity at 59.9 and new orders at 58.6. Services represent approximately 80% of the US economy, and the Prices Index at 63% has remained elevated for 15 consecutive months. That combination, strong activity and persistent price pressure, has kept the Fed in a careful position.
If March services data holds near February’s strength while NFP weakens, traders will face a genuinely mixed macro signal: resilient consumer-facing activity alongside a softening labor market. That divergence has historically created conditions where rate expectations and risk assets move in non-linear ways.
Tariff policy: the week’s invisible fifth data point
None of this week’s data exists in isolation. Every release arrives inside a tariff environment that remains legally contested and practically unresolved. The Section 122 global surcharge, 10% effective February 24, replaced IEEPA tariffs but may face the same legal challenges.
24 states filed to block it in early March. New Section 301 investigations were launched in mid-March covering multiple major trading partners. Refunds of previously collected IEEPA tariffs are being processed, but the timeline is uncertain.
Markets are reading each macro datapoint not just as a signal about the economy, but as an input into whether the tariff environment will tighten, ease, or destabilize further. Traders watching this week’s releases should consider the tariff backdrop as a consistent amplifier of volatility risk. This is not a period for low-signal reads on any datapoint.
Closing context
Four high-signal releases in four days is an unusually dense window. The combination of JOLTS, ISM Manufacturing, NFP, and ISM Services, all arriving in the context of an unresolved tariff regime and a labor market that showed its first negative monthly print in recent months, gives traders a significant amount to process.
Structured thinking about each datapoint and its interaction with the others, rather than reacting to any single number in isolation, is what separates tactical positioning from reactive trading.
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past market behavior is not a reliable indicator of future results. Trading involves risk.
